Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 37.018230 43.931252 51.576128 60.629223 71.027528 82.566601 96.309071
2024-10-13 25.651202 34.371258 45.024945 58.877957 76.280352 97.272580 124.349260
2024-10-20 22.078842 32.356912 45.856881 64.613946 89.682929 121.678602 165.187826
2024-10-27 16.673672 26.590474 40.524363 61.092191 90.150025 129.125423 184.611193
2024-11-03 14.432920 24.690475 39.923097 63.533060 98.390961 146.998463 218.689723
2024-11-10 12.949772 23.587655 40.177710 67.010228 108.156337 167.459618 257.570954
2024-11-17 11.614167 22.443284 40.121203 69.857250 117.056703 187.139807 296.502102
2024-11-24 10.021339 20.562944 38.580651 70.092357 121.833987 200.917244 327.530823
2024-12-01 8.336207 18.202531 35.880145 68.042048 122.674774 208.609489 349.711038
2024-12-08 7.287816 16.836720 34.685953 68.318562 127.178862 222.107037 381.414168
2024-12-15 6.494704 15.827165 33.978922 69.312211 132.866866 237.728641 417.218462
2024-12-22 5.072830 13.236011 29.933132 63.785498 126.779381 233.666713 421.087960
2024-12-29 4.466504 12.416147 29.444956 65.267092 133.985989 253.523143 467.628836
2025-01-05 3.649250 10.938723 27.425098 63.624073 135.535686 264.217461 500.306313
2025-01-12 3.561157 11.226818 29.198658 69.780846 152.246282 302.522641 582.493879
2025-01-19 2.799713 9.569608 26.372332 66.017968 149.461001 305.837482 604.094043
2025-01-26 2.547092 9.234651 26.528574 68.628198 159.455762 333.033744 669.537388
2025-02-02 2.380346 9.106579 27.157404 72.344769 171.997560 365.754209 746.785199
2025-02-09 2.194842 8.872266 27.479238 75.386515 183.378239 396.973180 822.991270
2025-02-16 1.910389 8.237830 26.656904 75.637653 188.842988 417.135307 879.777885
2025-02-23 1.577210 7.327767 24.922559 73.447292 188.774093 426.403861 916.508057
2025-03-02 1.377590 6.828421 24.233927 73.742728 194.202353 446.907875 975.769378
2025-03-09 1.226605 6.463529 23.866750 74.804284 201.439116 471.490777 1044.199128